Coincidence or not?
by Galen Buckwalter | May 15th, 2007The AP ran a story recently reporting a decline in divorce rates. After peaking in 1981, rates reported for 2005 are at their lowest since 1970. The rate in 1981 was 5.3 per 1,000 people, falling over 30% to a per capita rate of 3.7 per 1,000 in 2005.
Every relationship researcher is well aware of the difficulties inherent in accurately estimating divorce rates. For a thorough discussion of these issues see this excellent piece by Patrick Hueveline from the University of Chicago. However, if we assume the stats reported by AP are correct, the next step is to identify what factors may be contributing to this change in divorce rate. Twenty experts take a crack at explaining what may be going on in the AP piece.
One factor I haven’t seen anyone mention is the advent of online relationship services, eHarmony.com front and center. The Pew Internet & American Life Project on online dating reported that 15% of the American population know someone who got married or met a long term partner online. With such large numbers of persons using online means to find partners, it would be remiss not to consider the possibility that online services are playing some role in changing marriage and/or divorce rates.
Certainly there are numerous other factors to consider; lower rates of marriage, the possibility that there may be more widows in recent years, more cohabitation and delayed marriages—the list of possibilities is lengthy. And my bias in pointing out that online dating should be considered a factor that may impact the divorce rate is undeniable. When my friend Neil Clark Warren tried to convince me to do pro bono research to develop statistical models to match singles based on the profiles of successful marriages back in 1997, the clincher in getting me to accept was when he said, with the energy and passion that only Neil can express, “What would happen to our society if we could lower the divorce rate by just 1%?” So while there is certainly no way to tie this apparent trend toward lower divorce rates to the marriages that have resulted from online services that are designed to promote successful marriages, like eHarmony.com, it surely doesn’t seem as far-fetched as when Neil said it back in 1997.
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May 26th, 2007 at 6:38 am
Do the statisics you quote take into account how many marriages are second or third marriages? Or marriages between people over thirty or forty years old?
May 26th, 2007 at 4:16 pm
it is not a coincidence. The reason the divorce rate is down is because fewer and fewer people are choosing to get married, they are cohabitating instead.
What should be polled is how many couples living togeter decided to seperate. This will give you an indication of whether the divorce rate really went down or not.
May 26th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
The data needed to definitively answer the issues Pat and Geraldine raise are not available. If you go to the Census Bureau site on marriage the first thing you see is that they do not collect data on marriage and divorce that occur within a year.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/marr-div.html
The data that the AP story referred to were collected from states. Unfortunately states comprising about 20% of the population were not included. So this data is shaky for numerous reasons.
I agree with Geraldine that data on separation among cohabitating couples would be valuable. It seems that collecting this data must be prohibitively expensive since the Census does not even collect divorce information.
October 10th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
Sorry that I won’t be an advicate in saying how eharmony is somehow lowering the divorce rate. (But there is not doubt that it’s helping society, because there is a need for couples in every aspect of society).
So, what’s up with the declining number? Ya, it’s a decline in general to the choosing of marriage as the “only” option that “should” be traveled.
There is good and bad to that.
But, if I’m to really try and look deep into this info…..then I think no mater how the numbers are lined up, that the relationships today are much deeper in feeling and there is a much more bonding of emotions then ever before.
That’s what I see in todays relationships and a possible decline in divorce….if that has any connection to it.
But, it’s not only Dr. Phill, or years of data, or even the internet to make relationships last longer. It’s about society willingly stepping forward and stepping into a vulnerable spotlight while discovering another that does the same and will be great for a deep, profound, and loving connection.
So yes…there is also an educational period or 2 from Dr. Phill and the likes; an educatioal read or 2 from the data; and even better–that there are more and more ways of communication with members of the opposite sex.
But what makes that connection binding is the depth of the connection……so I think these tools are all helping toward having that deep and lasting relationship.
And eharmony is making that “spotlight” very much a non-vulnerable spotlight. Yet, there will always need to come about that strong love and connection for a lasting relationship.
Thankfully, many people are honest in talk shows, honest about the data, and even honest durring the eharmony ? ’s to fill out. It’s all getting past the surface of “just knowing someone” to having a heart planted deep into someone else and feeling FOREVER grateful for that love.
That kind of depth, for sure brings the statistics down. And I think society is getting more of that depth, thanks to the many areas of info, data, and just simple communication.
November 4th, 2007 at 7:42 pm
Please explain how they hypothesis of “what factors may be contributing to this change in divorce rate.” is impacted by a follow up sentence “Certainly there are numerous other factors to consider…..the possibility that there may be more widows in recent years…” Are you implying that the divorce rate is declining because more husbands are dying? Can you back something that macabre with any kind of scientific statistic? There is a decrease in violent crimes, despite a ware the number of soldiers dying is portionate to the number in in active service over decades and there have been advances in medical sciences. Where did you possibly get this statement?
November 14th, 2007 at 10:40 pm
I mentioned this as a hypothesis that needs to be ruled out. The recent data on veterans suicide, however, suggests that there may be factors in play that could support the hypothesis.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/11/13/cbsnews_investigates/main3496471.shtml